From Event Markets to Relative Value Markets
Event markets are beginning to price CPI, GDP, rates, and policy outcomes across fragmented venues. Oriel converts those isolated prices into a normalized macro reference layer, revealing forward curves, fair value, cross-venue dislocations, and execution-ready relative-value opportunities.
Every angle of the curve, on the same data.
Forward curves, maturity ladders, venue dispersion, and probability distributions, composed from one normalized macro reference. Switch the view, the data follows.
Macro forward curves for CPI, GDP, and policy-rate expectations
Implied CPI YoY by forward maturity, 3M → 10Y
Basis points away from Oriel Reference, per venue & maturity
Probability bucket distribution · 1Y CPI YoY
Prediction markets show where expectations are priced.
Oriel shows where they are mispriced.
Oriel normalizes fragmented event-market signals into a single reference surface, measures where venue prices diverge from fair value, and turns those dislocations into an execution-ready framework for institutions.
From event-market prices to a tradable value surface.
Event markets price CPI, GDP, rates, and policy outcomes across fragmented venues. The pipeline normalizes those signals into forward curves, fair value, and execution-ready relative-value opportunities.
Ingest event markets
Aggregate CPI, GDP, rates, and policy contracts across venues and formats.
Normalize and align
Map contracts, tenors, calendars, and methodologies into a common framework.
Detect dislocations
Compare comparable contracts to fair value across venues and maturities.
Build the reference surface
Construct forward curves, fair value, and confidence bands from fragmented event prices.
Trade the difference
Generate relative-value trades, hedge structures, and execution-ready strategies.
Macro surfaces, starting with CPI.
CPI is the first reference surface. The same architecture extends across macro event markets that produce tradable real-time signals, including quarterly GDP growth, labor-market outcomes, FOMC policy decisions, rate-path expectations, and cross-venue basis.
CPI & inflation forwards
CPIUSYY · REFHeadline US CPI year-on-year with monthly forward maturities. Sourced across Kalshi, Polymarket, and ForecastEx, reconciled into the Oriel reference curve with daily and intraday snapshots.
GDP & growth expectations
ON DECKQuarterly GDP prints and nowcasts derived from event-market activity, aligned to BEA release windows.
FOMC & rate path
ON DECKMeeting-by-meeting outcome probabilities and implied policy path, mapped to fed-funds futures.
Cross-venue macro basis
ROADMAPContinuous monitoring of pricing differences across event-market venues, with alerting at desk-defined thresholds.
Custom reference surfaces
PARTNERBespoke macro reference surfaces built with launch partners on the same normalized pipeline.
See Oriel at work.
Event markets are beginning to price CPI, GDP, rates, and policy outcomes across fragmented venues. Oriel converts those isolated prices into a normalized macro reference layer, revealing forward curves, fair value, cross-venue dislocations, and execution-ready relative-value opportunities.
- 00:00Ingesting venue contracts
- 00:42Building the reference curve
- 01:38Surfacing cross-venue basis
- 02:24Routing decisions to the desk
Built for teams turning event-market signal into tradable macro risk.
Discretionary & systematic books
Plug the reference curve into existing risk and execution stacks. Surface dislocations as signals; back-test against curve history.
- Reference curve via API
- Signal feed by desk threshold
- Snapshot + historical archive
Fair-value reference
A neutral reference for pricing inventory and managing cross-venue exposure across event-market books.
- Fair-value mark at any tenor
- Inventory-aware basis view
- Low-latency push feed
Allocator intelligence
An institutional read on event-market liquidity and the macro signals it is producing, without standing up a venue integration.
- Quarterly research desk
- Bespoke surface coverage
- Manager-facing terminal seat
Request a demo.
We're onboarding launch partners across macro funds, market makers, and allocators. Tell us a little about your event-market strategy and we'll follow up.